The rupee is still down over 5 percent so far this year. With GDP data behind, analysts will now watch the RBI's next bi-monthly policy for a cue.
The rupee edged up against the US dollar on Friday, extending its mild recovery to the third straight session. In morning trade, the rupee rose to as much as 67.18 against the US dollar, a level saw three weeks ago. Gains in the rupee came a day after official data showed GDP growth rose a better-than-expected 7.7 percent in January-March quarter. However, the rupee - which had last month dipped to as much as 18-month low of 68.42 against the dollar - is still down over 5 percent so far this year. With GDP data behind, analysts will now watch the Reserve Bank of India's next bi-monthly policy for a cue.
1. The strong GDP numbers have strengthened expectations that RBI could possibly go for rate hikes sooner than estimated. "In terms of RBI's outlook, we expect a rate hike soon. There's a 50 percent chance of a rate hike happening in June," said Teresa John, an economist at Nirmal Bang Institutional Equities.
2. "The down move in crude prices seems to have halted for now and that could support USD-INR. The USD-INR pair is continuing its bearish momentum. But it has immediate support at 67.30 levels," forex advisory firm IFA Global said in a note.
3. Crude oil prices had last month touched $80 per barrel, a level was last seen in 2014. With crude oil being the largest item on India's import bill, the prices influence the rupee's movement against the US dollar. On the higher side, USD-INR has immediate resistance at around 67.55-67.60 levels, IFA Global added.
4. "Rupee seems to have benefited from the easing on Brent crude from $80 levels," Salil Datar, CEO and executive director, Essel Finance VKC Forex, told NDTV.
Here are five things to know about movement in the rupee against the US dollar (INR vs USD) today:
1. The strong GDP numbers have strengthened expectations that RBI could possibly go for rate hikes sooner than estimated. "In terms of RBI's outlook, we expect a rate hike soon. There's a 50 percent chance of a rate hike happening in June," said Teresa John, an economist at Nirmal Bang Institutional Equities.
2. "The down move in crude prices seems to have halted for now and that could support USD-INR. The USD-INR pair is continuing its bearish momentum. But it has immediate support at 67.30 levels," forex advisory firm IFA Global said in a note.
3. Crude oil prices had last month touched $80 per barrel, a level was last seen in 2014. With crude oil being the largest item on India's import bill, the prices influence the rupee's movement against the US dollar. On the higher side, USD-INR has immediate resistance at around 67.55-67.60 levels, IFA Global added.
4. "Rupee seems to have benefited from the easing on Brent crude from $80 levels," Salil Datar, CEO and executive director, Essel Finance VKC Forex, told NDTV.
5. He expects the rupee to trade between 67.30/35 to 67.75/80 levels in near term.
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